BORDERLESS’ TAKE: Thailand’s economy will weather the political storm (in the long run)

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Credit: istockphoto.com/beemanja

By Matt Rusling

If you watch the TV news, Thailand appears to be a mess.

The protests have not petered out, not by a long shot, and recent days have seen the election commission urge a postponement of February’s scheduled elections.

The situation has become more fluid, with a police officer killed and dozens wounded, and on Friday the head of the army did not rule out military intervention, saying the military “does not shut or open the door to a coup.”

Still, Thailand has seen this film before.

“Let’s keep in mind that the Thai economy has withstood multiple coups and regime changing events for decades,” Gene Panasenko, a financial consultant and wealth manager at LPL Financial, told Borderless. “Yet multiple Fortune 500 companies have manufacturing facilities there.”

Indeed, the country is highly integrated into the global supply chain, which especially holds true for automobiles and related industries, he said.

It is one of the most advanced and wealthiest economies of Southeast Asia, boasts a strong and expanding consumer class, and the country’s location makes it an ideal base for foreign companies looking to enter the region’s markets, he said.

“Those qualities have helped the country get through the past crises, (ranging from) the 2011 earthquake in Japan that inflicted a significant blow to the auto supply chain in Thailand, to the floods that hit Bangkok later that year,” he said.

The next few days’ developments will show which direction the country and its economy will take in the immediate future. But in the long term, “we feel the country will maintain its status as one of the most vibrant economies in the region and as such should be appealing to the long-term investors,” he said.

Still, the short term could be ugly.

“The escalating riots started triggering multiple travel cancellations, as some countries issued travel warnings for those traveling to Thailand,” he said.

“These developments and their ripple effects will trigger more (short term) negative developments on the economic front,” he said.

Disclosure
:
LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC
.
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